The Voice:

The Dublin Airport Passenger Cap: The Barrier To Brazil-Ireland Flights

Anyone who travelled over Christmas between Brazil and Ireland will know, the journey is rarely straightforward. Long flight times, multiple connections, rising costs and the physical toll of travel all add up. This is particularly so for families, older travellers, or those caring for someone who depends on them.

So, it’s no wonder the idea of a direct flight between São Paulo and Dublin continues to gain traction. Demand has been clear for years. Yet, achieving this has evaded travellers to this day.

The culprit: Dublin Airport’s long-running passenger cap.

What Is The Dublin Airport Passenger Cap?

The passenger cap limits Dublin Airport to 32 million passengers per year. It was agreed in 2007 between An Bord Pleanála and Dublin Airport Authority as a planning condition when permission was granted for the construction of Terminal 2.

At the time, the cap was intended to address concerns around traffic congestion on the M50 motorway and access roads to the airport — infrastructure that has since been significantly upgraded. However, to this day, the cap itself remains in place, even as passenger numbers and Ireland’s international connectivity is growing rapidly.

In recent years, and under temporary legal suspensions, the airport has exceeded the cap in practice, demonstrating a growing mismatch between regulation and reality.

Why The Cap Has Become Such A Problem

Ireland’s aviation market has changed dramatically since 2007. Dublin Airport has become a major European hub, particularly for transatlantic travel, supported by US preclearance facilities and growing long-haul demand.

Airlines argue that the passenger cap:

• Creates uncertainty around long-term slot availability
• Discourages investment in new routes
• Makes Dublin less competitive than other European hubs
• Particularly affects long-haul expansion, where planning certainty is essential

For routes like São Paulo, which require long-term aircraft deployment and confidence in future capacity, this uncertainty is a obvious barrier.

Demand For A Direct São Paulo–Dublin Route

In 2025, Dublin Airport ran a public poll asking where passengers most wanted to see new direct routes. São Paulo won overwhelmingly, attracting 71% of nearly 90,000 votes.

DAA has previously stated that around 140,000 passengers travelled between Dublin and Brazil in a single year, using connecting flights, a figure that continues to grow. Estimates suggest there are 70,000–80,000 Brazilians living in Ireland, alongside a steadily increasing number of Irish people living and working in Brazil.

The Irish Ambassador to Brazil, Martin Gallagher, recently underlined the importance of this link, stating that one of his main priorities is deepening trade and investment ties between Ireland and Brazil, and that a direct air route is a key element of that effort.

Legal Pressure From U.S. Airlines

In late 2024, the issue escalated internationally.

Several major US airlines, represented by Airlines for America (A4A), lodged a formal complaint with the United States Department of Transportation, arguing that Dublin Airport’s passenger cap breaches US-EU aviation agreements and EU competition rules.

Filed under the International Air Transportation Fair Competitive Practices Act, the complaint claims the cap is discriminatory and anti-competitive, potentially restricting US airlines’ access to airport slots.

While no immediate sanctions have followed, it appears the risk of continued uncertainty could affect transatlantic operations and Ireland’s aviation relationships more broadly.

Delay’s in Removing The Cap

The Irish government has committed to removing the passenger cap, and legislation to do so is currently being drafted. In parallel, DAA has applied for permission to raise the cap to 40 million passengers per year, reflecting projected growth.

However, progress hit another delay.

In March 2025, the Irish Independent reported that the Aircraft Noise Competent Authority (ANCA) decided it needed to carry out a noise assessment on DAA’s planning applications. A process that could delay a final decision by up to a year.

Local councillors were informed that the assessment was required before any planning outcome could be reached, adding yet another layer to an already complex process.

While understandable from a regulatory perspective, the delay reinforced the uncertainty for airlines.

Why This Matters For Brazil–Ireland Flights

Although much of the legal debate centres on US airlines, the implications are global.

When airlines decide where to launch new long-haul routes, they consider:

• Long-term slot certainty
• Regulatory stability
• Infrastructure capacity
• Growth potential

If Dublin Airport is perceived as constrained or unpredictable, airlines may choose to deploy aircraft elsewhere, even where demand is strong.

Removing the passenger cap doesn’t automatically deliver a São Paulo route. But without removing it, that route remains significantly harder to justify.

What The Future Looks Like

Despite further delays, the overall direction of travel is clear.

The passenger cap is widely seen as outdated. Political commitment exists to remove it. Legal pressure is increasing. Demand for long-haul connectivity continues to grow.

If the cap is lifted, Dublin Airport becomes far more attractive for airlines considering routes to South America. At that point, the conversation shifts from whether a direct São Paulo–Dublin flight is possible, to when it will launch.

For the Irish community in Brazil, that may not bring immediate change. But after years of indirect flights and long journeys, it represents meaningful progress, and a clearer path toward the direct connection many have been waiting for.